Canberra’s kept a lid on house prices this year, but it may be nearly over….
Canberra’s housing market — long buffered by cautious demand, sluggish supply and high borrowing costs — has begun to show cracks in its once-placid facade. After months of tight control, the lid on prices may be coming off.
Sluggish supply; rising pressure: Weak new approvals and limited listings have eroded Canberra’s resistance to national forces. Official data for Australia shows housing values climbing for five consecutive months, with a 0.6 % rise in June on a national scale . That trend is nudging into the ACT, where median house prices—having hovered near $975,000—finally saw modest gains (around +0.4 %) in mid‑2025 .
Rate‑cut thaw meets pent-up demand: The Reserve Bank’s rate cuts in February and May have boosted borrowing power, reigniting buyer confidence even in Canberra’s conservative marketplace. Across the country, auctions have grown increasingly competitive—a sign that buyers are jumping in . In Canberra, apartments and townhouses—more affordable slices of the market—have seen renewed interest, with CoreLogic noting upticks in February and beyond .
What’s next: Canberra’s annual growth remains tepid (~0.8 %), and prices are still ~4–5 % below their 2022 peak . However, with supply lagging, mortgage rates easing, and first‑home buyers reentering, even Canberra could shift from stability into growth territory. The cautious equilibrium is unravelling—and if supply doesn’t catch up soon, the Canberra housing market may be poised for a sustained upswing by year’s end.
